Doosra Vanvaas

Here is a video in which Kaifi Saheb is reciting one of his own nazm.

This nazm is about the incidents which took place in India on 6th of Dec 1992 and what followed afterwards. The poem slams communalism in its face.

Here it is:

राम बनवास से जब लौट के घर में आये,
याद जंगल बहुत आया जो नगर में आये,
रक्से दीवानगी आँगन में जो देखा होगा,
६ दिसम्बर को श्री राम ने सोचा होगा,
इतने दीवाने कहाँ से मेरे घर में आये?

जगमगाते थे जहाँ राम के क़दमों के निशाँ,
प्यार की कहकशा लेती थी अंगडाई जहाँ,
मोड़ नफरत के उसी रहगुज़र में आये,
धरम क्या उनका है, क्या जात है, यह जानता कौन?
घर न जलता तो उन्हें रात में पहचानता कौन,
घर जलाने को मेरा, लोग जो घर में आये,
शाकाहारी है मेरे दोस्त तुम्हारा खंजर.

तुमने बाबर की तरफ फेके थे सारे पत्थर
है मेरे सर की खता ज़ख्म जो सर में आये,
पाँव सरयू में अभी राम ने धोये भी न थे
के नज़र आये वहां खून के गहरे धब्बे,
पाँव धोये बिना सरयू के किनारे से उठे,
राम यह कहते हुए अपने द्वारे से उठे,
राजधानी की फ़िज़ा आयी नहीं रास मुझे,
६ दिसम्बर को मिला दूसरा बनवास मुझे.

Killer Prices!

Guess who is killing most people. It’s not war or terrorism or naxalism or riots or mobs or gangsters. It’s INFLATION. You will say I’m kidding inflation is just 1.51% in India and not very long ago RBI was worried with negative inflation. But believe me it’s true rising food prices have broken the back of common man in India.

Prices of important commodities are ruling high. Common man is suffering as now even the most basic needs are getting out of their reach. Pick up any newspapers and one can see prices of commodities like sugar, pulses, and wheat, are at historical highs; the highs which were not seen even the severest of droughts. The official inflation rate is still only 1.51% when retail prices have crossed Rs 34/kg, Rs 100/kg, Rs 1600/Quintal for sugar, tuar dal, and wheat 147 respectively.

This is the situation when warehouses of Bhartiya Khadya Nigam (Food Corporation of India) are full of wheat and when the government has removed all the import duties from the import of sugar and pulses import in wake of rising prices and expected poor supply. What are the reasons for such a surge in prices of these commodities? Well, following reasons come to mind:

First, given the poor rainfall this year (however, not that scanty at all), the total sugarcane and hence sugar production is expected to fall. In fact, the estimates for sugar production in 2009 stand at 45% decline which is also going to bring down global sugar production by 11%. However, the demand of the sugar is relatively price inelastic, i.e. no matter what the price is consumption is going to remain more or less same. Reduced supply, constant demand, from basic demand supply equilibrium we know that the prices are going to rise. But the sudden surge is not completely explained by this phenomenon as prices were not this high even in the festive season of Diwali.

In case of pulses, which is experiencing price rise for quite some time now (last year and a half or so), India always had supply demand mismatch atleast over the last decade. India’s current production levels are pegged at around 14 MT whereas demand is around 18 MT and the gap is filled with imports. No significant fall is expected in Indian pulses production. Infact, it is estimated to grow a little bit. Then, fall in global production of pulses or increase in global demand or both may be riding price rise of pulses. I think both of these effects are working together. But Indian which is anyway a under nourished society will suffer as pulses are cheapest source of protein.

The case of wheat is different. The production is increasing and government warehouses are full of wheat. The demand for wheat is also suddenly not increased that much to drive prices to the current historical levels. Then we can only speculate on the price rises of wheat.

Black marketing and hoarding is also one of the prominent reasons for rise in prices of essential commodities. This is evident form all those reports on raids on traders’ warehouses and confiscation of huge amounts of these commodities. There is also report from Press Trust of India, which you can read here, which says that sugar and pulses are stockpiled (in fact in real large quantities – 6.50 lakh tonnes of sugar and 2.01 lakh tonnes of pulses) on ports. This stockpiling is done by importers who have seen the skyrocketing of prices. As a matter of fact, these imports are exempted from any import duty by the government to control the prices. But at present, as we are seeing, exactly opposite is happening.

Third reason for price rises can be attributed to futures trading. Futures trading, which was essentially meant to benefit farmers through which they could hedge their risks of price volatility, is currently serving the cause of speculators. Speculation leads to increase in food prices by creating a demand which is not actually there, i.e. speculators’ demand is not consumption demand. The speculators create a kind of positive feedback loop in which they overreact to a trend there by shifting the prices more then they should in any particular direction. A more detailed explanation of how speculation affects prices can be found here. However, in the present scenario, i.e. recession and various government controls on derivative trading the impact of speculation is, as I understand, not too strong to explain Himalayan highs in food prices.

Another factor which plays role in rising food prices in developing countries is structural shift in nature of agricultural production as farmers in these countries shift from production of food crops to production of cash crops. However, this is more of a long term trend and is not sufficient in explaining current short term trend.

One question which is left unanswered is – did increased money supply play a villainous role here? I am not sure of that either as demand does not increases by much with increase in money at hand. In fact, this is the reason why farmers suffer in case of bumper crops. In such a case supply increases but demand does not even at the lowest of prices.

So, the overall scene seems pretty complex and so are policy implications of each of the factors playing part here. What can policy maker do in order to contain prices? (I’ll write about that in next post).

Wonderful Resource

Khan Academy is a not-for-profit organization which has created hundreds of free videos to teach everything from physics to chemistry to finance to statistics to higher mathematics and what not. The videos are really very good and you can check them here. The videos are also available on youtube.

The videos are created by Salman Khan, a California based portfolio manager, who has also started Khan Academy. Salman Khan has three degrees from MIT and one from Harvard, so he knows exactly what he is talking about. He has also received “2009 Tech Award in Education”. The Tech Awards is an international awards program that honours innovators from around the world who are applying technology to benefit humanity.

The videos are amazingly good resource which benefit can everybody and anybody. So, make full use of the great contribution by Salman Khan to the knowledge community. Kudos to Salman Khan.

Naxalism: A Question Of Security Only?

Naxalism is a question of security threat, as has been conceived by the Indian state, only or it raises a bigger question of inclusive growth which the Indian state has systematically failed to deliver to its citizens especially the most under-privileged ones. Has any government in India whether at the centre or at the state level tried to identify reasons for the support which the Maoists keep getting from the people in the regions where they are operational? The answers seems to be “no” because if the state had known these reasons for the popular support to the “biggest security threat” to India then they would have taken the steps to ameliorate the sufferings of the tribals rather than undertaking huge counter insurgency program like the one which will involve Indian army and outlay of some Rs 1100 Cr is estimated to be made on the operation or the other one in which the government of Chhattisgarh has formed a vigilante Salwa Judum which has further the sufferings of the poor tribals in Dantewada district.

It was promised to the Indians that on independence they will be given “justice, social, economic and political; equality of status; of opportunity, and before the law; freedom of thought, expression, belief, faith, worship, vocation, association and action, subject to law and public morality”. However, far from what was promised, the citizens of India who belong to the under-privileged sections of the society like dalits, adivasis, etc still suffer from the lack of the most basic amenities necessary for survival like education, healthcare facilities, employment, etc. In fact in most of the places and for most of the people belonging to these sections the conditions are worsened as compared to that at the time of independence. Adivasis had to make way for the huge development projects, either in the public or in the private domain, for larger good. They were asked to evacuate their places for which they were given monetary compensation. This monetary thing evaporated soon and in the absence of any productive skills, as their means of living were very primordial, they are now more poor, marginalised and vulnerable.

The presence and expansion of naxalites have a geographic reason. They are mostly active in the central and in the eastern India in the areas which are covered by deep forests and are hilly and very much inaccessible. This kind of landscape is well suited for the guerrilla warfare which they are engaged with the “exploitative” Indian state to dethrone it for the establishment of a class free state. But the reason is not only geographical, it is also historical. The adivasis of India who have gained least and lost most from the political independence of past 62 years are located in these areas and hence they can be easily fomented to become the soldier for the cause of Red Revolution. In fact, both the reasons are connected. It’s because the terrain that the Indian state has not been able to develop the adivasi region of India and hence adivasis remained underdeveloped or even destructed. However, the Maoists operating in the region live in the same state of penury as the adivasis do and hence they get very fertile land for getting sympathy and therefore soldiers for their cause.

These are the reasons for the expansion of naxalism in India. Now looking from the point of the biggest security threat where does naxalism stand. When compared with number of killings and atrocities against most disadvantaged section of the society in the state of Uttar Pradesh (not known for naxalism) the naxal affected states fare very well. The figures are also better than the killings by the state in Gujarat in 2002 and in Delhi in 1984. So, it can be argued that the violence is not the only reason for considering naxalism as a biggest threat. Another reason for considering naxalism as a biggest security threat is the extortion or the levies on industries and contractors operating in the region to finance their weapons purchase. But this also does not hold strong as there is also parallel illegal machinery at work in these areas in which the forest officials extracts money from companies and contractors to facilitate illegal tree felling and mining.

Then why it is so that the state of India considers naxalism to be biggest security threat. There are some reasons. First, it is the image of the state of being firm and taking action. The problem is not much about violence as much as it poses a threat to the status quo. Second, it may be propagated as a big threat to get inappropriate amount of funding and forces which a cash starved state requires and as these funds are provided by the government at the centre.

This does not mean that the intentions of Maoists are not of capturing power through armed struggle. But given the state of affairs it seems improbable that the Maoists will ever gain enough military power to challenge the Indian state. But then both the sides’ projection of naxalism as significant military threat has driven the Indian media crazy which is now discussing it as if the war between the two sides is on the cards.

Amidst all this crazy propaganda the real and bigger problems at hand are left unattended. Rather than crushing the naxalism through new experiments each day in counter insurgency tactics why don’t Indian government and the concerned states focus on the upliftment of the adivasis which is the root cause of the problem?

Aadha Gaon

This is a story of a village – Gangauli. It is located in India. It could have been located anywhere else, may be in Pakistan. But that is not important; important is that it is located in the lives of its people who are living there for generations, the count of which is forgotten. The village is so deeply embedded in the lives of people that they just could not think of a moment of separation from it. So, when there was this question of Pakistan, a to be haven for Indian Muslims who would otherwise be slaughtered and butchered in India and their lives would be like that in hell, the Muslims in Gangauli did not go. Some of them fled but even they missed their life in Gangauli. Life without Gangauli is not life for them. In Gangauli, they would fight among themselves, conspire against one another, still celebrate together, sorrow together, simply they lived together.

In no other book have the lives of Shia Muslims, especially in rural India, has been uncovered so shamelessly to the extent of abuses, yet as beautifully as it can get. The novel is truth blunt and blatant. Perhaps that life was so beautiful and author did extremely well in portraying it as it is without his biases or prejudices.

The story begins in pre-independence India where these Muslims were still landlords and were living their lives as happily and merrily as their forefathers have lived. It’s not that they were all very rich by money but the lives were still rich with local stories, local festivals, local styles, local language, local fights, local loves, local bonds, etc. The village was divided into two parts viz. uttarpatti (northern lane) and dakshinpatti (southern lane). In those times, especially in Gangauli, lives were simple and happy, and everyone was enjoying it. Patti Dari, Muharram, zamindari, loves and marriages, births and deaths, sanctity and adultery, these were the constituents of lives of Shia Muslims in India then.

Then came the Great War and it bring with it a new set of twists in their lives. Many sons of Gangauli left it to fight for the British. Most of them martyred for an unknown cause. Sorrows of the “miyas” escalated. Some became childless for the rest of their lives. The yards of their houses were vacant waiting to become playground for the new ones. But life still continued. Gangauli and miyas continued to live the same old way. The way of life was not changed.

Then, Gangauli started hearing about Pakistan but they did not understand what it is, why it is being formed, why Muslims will not be safe in India after independence. Simply they did not care if it is formed or not. What they cared was that their lives and their zamindari should remain intact. They voted for the league or the Congress just for the heck of it. They did not like congress just because they would bereave their lands from them.

India got independence and Pakistan was formed and it changed the lives of these Muslims upside down. Class structure changed, zamindari was abolished, Shias lost their financial power, etc. For Shias going to Pakistan was not the option as it was a nation meant for Sunnis.Still many of them fled to Pakistan especially the youth in search of “better” life. The landscape was still the same in Gangauli, most of the people were same although they were little older but Gangauli was no more Gangauli of older times. Muharram was not as joyful as it happened to be. Older ones were left alone to die in solitude. Their sons did not return form Pakistan or helped them. They did not go because they did not want to leave land of their forefathers, the land which was their mother, which fed them for their lives. They cannot leave when only burial was left in their life.

Author has wonderfully captured the emotional battle which the Muslims of India fought before, during and after the partition. Amidst all the haggles of life which are presented in an eloquent manner the book successfully, although only implicitly, raises bigger questions pertaining to humanity. The book is in fact a solid creative blow on the face of communalism which goes, anywhere in the world, only in the favour of humanity.

China: Ready to implode?

If debt financed consumption has shown us one of the worst economic downturns of our times then what debt financed production can have for us in the pack, another major downturn for the economy which has just begun to recover?

Chinese economy is heavily dependent upon exports as they form a big chunk of its GDP. Just before financial meltdown the ratio of exports to GDP for China was as high as 40%. After the meltdown last September the exports as a percentage of GDP fell down considerably by around 30%. This means that the Chinese GDP must have suffered big time. But still we come to know that Chinese economy has grown by 8.9% in real terms. How did this happen?

China is presently continuing with its fiscal stimulus plan which if seen as a percentage of GDP is much higher than the one which is the US has provided for its economy. However, till now only a small part of that plan is actually executed in China. Then from where the Chinese miracle growth came?

One argument could be that fall in exports is more than made up by the increase in the domestic consumption. However, this is not the case. To understand the Chinese growth really will have to dig deeper to understand how the numbers are calculated in China. In China, unlike other countries, GDP numbers are measured in terms of production and not in terms of consumption, i.e. manufacturing of goods is counted in GDP but not the sales.

In the last year, there was a significant increase in bank credit in China. In fact, it increased by as much as 28%. There is also significant evidence about increase in purchase of raw materials by China. This means that the credit liquidated by the banking system is used to increase production. In normal conditions, this cannot sustain for long as soon the producer would run out of money. However, if bank is willing to lend to the producer he can produce goods for inventory.

In a situation when demand for the goods produced by these manufacturers has decreased, increasing production would essentially mean that the finished goods are rotting in the warehouses. Ultimately this cannot continue for long as one of the bank, manufacturer or channel partner would have to book losses. No economy can sustain for long if it produces goods for which there is no market. This would also have serious repercussions for the Chinese as well as the world economy which is still suffering with the pain of sub-prime crisis led financial meltdown.

Year 2008 has shown us that economic model based on debt financed consumption is not so good then Chinese idea of debt financed production looks more absurd. China, however, can continue this conundrum for a little loner than the expected owing to huge reserves, of the order of $2 trillion, but ultimately this will have to come to an end. “When” is the question and what will be the impact of that? The answer depends on the way of ending. Let’s wait and see.

Life in the wild…

Ever imagined what the life was for humans 1000 or may be 2000 years back. Living in a jungle completely untouched in any way by what we called “Modern Civilization”. The imagination is sensational – living in the wild amidst dense trees, rivers, waterfalls, wild and dangerous animals, and hard weather. Looks like I am describing an adventure filled camping tree in one of the wildlife sanctuaries but it is not so adventurous for people of Korba tribe in India as they continue to live in these conditions generation after generation from time immemorial.

The tribe lives in dense forests of Chhattisgarh, a state in Central India, which are very nearly inaccessible for the outside world. The approximate population of the tribe is around ten thousand and all of them live in forests of Jashpurnagar, Chhattisgarh. They have a language of their own known as “Sadari”. The most important occasions of the lives are celebrated in caves. From birth to marriages, all joys are celebrated and sorrows are mourned in the caves. No roof on their head and hence they are forced to live in caves in the forests. They do not cultivate land and do not grow anything. They don’t work in factories (there are none there). They don’t run any business. Simply they are unemployed as their in no productive activity to be involved in.

They don’t own a ration card nor have they heard of any. They don’t know that govt gives rice on ration card. Primary source of food is wild food available in the forest. They also eat “chapatis” made of corn which they get from nearby villages by begging. They don’t wear anything but shabby small clothes to cover necessary parts of the body. Korbas weapons are bows and arrows which they use to safeguard themselves against wild animals. Most of them don’t have any experience of life in a city. They don’t know any of the electronic gadgets we know and use.

It’s not that anything is not done to uplift their conditions (in fact, the agency formed for development is now 30 years old) but all schemes meant for their development, into which money has been poured by the governments, were used by bureaucracy to fill their pockets. The education levels are pathetically low. They don’t know that there is an employment guarantee scheme. Some of the younger korbas have seen and know the importance of money but they haven’t seen any big note.

But tragically korbas are not aware that they are so poorly placed in the strata of livelihood. They are happy with what they are and what they have and what they know. They say that money has no importance in their life. They don’t any complaints against anyone nor do they care about anyone in the outside world. So far so good, but do their social and economic condition raise humanitarian concerns? If not today, then may be in the future the questions will be raised when their forests will be taken away from them to serve our development demand. Is it not better to bring them into mainstream and make part of modern civilization where they are not so helplessly dependent on the forests but employ their own productive power for better livelihood?

Invaluable Gold…

Gold is rallying and rallying high. This kind of surge is never seen over atleast last 25 – 30 years. It reached to historic high of $1055/Oz this month. The question which is shredding off everyone’s mind is what to expect next in gold prices. Well different analysts predict different things. Some say there is a big correction overdue and gold price will shot down big time whereas others are of opinion that the surge in gold prices has just started and it would reach new heights pretty soon.

Among many reasons attributed for the recent price rise is continuous depreciation of dollar which hitherto was considered a “store of value”, i.e. wealth by the investor but the devaluation has just rendered confidence of the investors breaking down. The devaluation is continuous increase in the money supply to fight the current financial meltdown. The increase is, according to different estimates, of order ranging from $900 B to some trillion $. And this stimulus is going to continue atleast till March 2010 as inflation is not yet a major concern in the US and economy is till not fully on the path of recovery. In addition to increase in money supply is the huge deficit carried by the US government which is estimated to be of the order of $1.24 trillion. All this have lead confidence in the US dollar tumbling because anyone holding investment in dollars or dollar denominated instruments is going to lose value on the investment. As a result of this investors are looking for alternative investments and gold turns out to be good option as the value stored by gold as wealth does not deteriorate over time.

One more reasons prominently discussed by the investment analysts is purchase of gold by countries like China and Russia in large amounts over last few years. They are losing their confidence in dollar as a currency in which to maintain reserves especially China as it is running one of the largest forex reserves in the US $ and earns a lot more each year through export route. Therefore, it feels need of converting its reserves in something else like gold rather than storing them as weak USDs which is anyway depreciating fast.

One more cause for rising gold prices is Central Banks in Europe which hitherto were selling gold, i.e., increasing supply of gold (reasons for this are matter of separate discussion), have started purchasing gold in large amounts . This had double impact on rise of gold prices.

One more thing which needs to be discussed in above context is inflation. What is the impact of gold price rise on inflation? There is no direct relationship between gold prices and inflation as it is not a major consumable commodity or a factor input. The increase in gold prices if carried up by weakening dollar then this can lead to rise in oil prices which could have severe inflationary impact on the economy. But since there has been no real high inflation (i.e. hyperinflation) threat in the recent past and near future the dollar holdings (thanks to recession!), the interest rates and hence money supply are not going to be touched upon by Fed in near term. This would imply that the dollar weakening will continue and hence rising prices. Higher inflation reduces the value of currency which you have in store and have presents another incentive for investor to shift investment from currency denominated instruments to gold and hence price of gold rises.

But there can be questions raised about above conclusions because as soon as economy comes on track and equity and other financial markets revive then the investors would turn to them in search of higher returns. This is expected to happen sooner rather than later. This means that a correction in gold prices is in store in the short term atleast. Short term because economic recovery can lead to higher oil prices which can inturn lead to higher gold prices in the medium to long term and also as faith in the Us dollar is shaken and there are demands for new global currency.

What about increase in total quantity of gold above crust? The rate of increase is very poor and cannot keep up with the rising demand. This is so because for last 29 years the prices have been so low that investment in gold mining has been negligible because of high exploration and mining costs and a very difficult and complicated process. To add to that the prices have been so low and stagnant that return on such investment was not fruitful, more so in scenario when equity and other financial markets provided much better real returns (inflation adjusted as inflation have been very low for all these years) It’s not a major industrial input to drive up investment in exploration and mining. Presently, each year around 1.5% of total quantity is added to the stock.

Supply is lesser than the demand and new capacities for exploration and mining would not be built unless their is clear indication of long term increase in prices. So, long term trend in prices clearly depends upon the dollar movement in future alongwith geopolitical conditions in the world. But certainly a correction in the short term is expected even for whom gold prices are going to surge beyond unimaginable limit. So, gold at present if to be held for long term is invaluable certainly but one may lose money if holding for short term gains.

An award for intentions

So, the US President Barack Obama gets Nobel Price for Peace for his vision on nuclear non-proliferation. I don’t know if it is for the first time that somebody has got the prize only for the intentions without actually doing anything substantial for it or even atleast laying out strong positive action plan for achieving them.

And what does the vision look like? Is it about the US taking a lead in non-proliferation and starting peacefully destroying its huge stock of nuclear weapons? If it is that then even for the intention the award can be justified but then what would happen to the hegemony of the US and can any US president would ignite such ideology which is certainly going to atleast end his political career with impeachment because of huge political and public uproar. But again Obama can be a man of will and for the peace in the world he can become Gandhi and propagate and inspire a generation of the US to agree to what his intentions are. But the chances of this happening are really grim.

Then is it that the deterrence is supposed to come through brutal force to be applied on poorer and undeveloped states (yes the indication is towards Iran), which are already suffering from a lot many internal problems. So, the cost of successful implementation of his vision can lead to uncountable deaths, massive destruction, converting civil lives into rot just for the fear that these countries can produce nuclear weapons with which they can be threat for the world’s peace, no matter how grim the chances of this happening can be. And also this assault by the US will give them all the more incentive to develop these nuclear weapons to deter (if they can) the US attack or if not deter then atleast avenge what’s being done with them. So, the intentions may actually proliferate

So, the so considered most honourable prize is given for intentions which ultimately may not look very peaceful. On the contrary they may be harmful for the peace. But may be uncertainty about future can justify the award. Wait a moment, this is the case with all the things, so then can we expect the Nobel Prizes in other disciplines to be given on the basis of what the scholars, practitioners, etc are planning to do or have intentions to do. Then I may also be in contentions for Nobel Prize in Chemistry for having intentions of inventing a process that can convert carbon dioxide back into hydrocarbon or may be in Medicine for having intentions of developing drug for HIV AIDS.

The Climate Question….

So, as the minister of state for environment starts talking about importance of Kyoto Protocol and India’s adherence to it, a huge opposition was observed. The opposition is not only for the sake of opposition, but it has solid economic logic behind it even thought this may not exactly be the intent of the opposing parties (as their reasons can be more political). Adhering to the Kyoto Protocol means that India will have to fulfil the emission targets, for which to happen it would have to out in place stricter norms and environmental regulations. This all will lend to reduction in the economic growth of the country. In a country which is not developed, have second largest population and all the indices of quality of human life in country shows that it is very placed right at the bottom, compromising the growth for the sake of environment is not very good choice. Extreme Poverty and poor living conditions make Indians at a large to discount future at a very high rate. And in any case India’s emission rates are no where near to the rates in some of the most developed countries in the world.
If India keeps growing at the rate at which it is presently then soon, even though emission per person may not be high, contribution to the accumulation of overall stock of gases may become very large and since right now we don’t know what will be effects of these changes in the environment but atleast this much is known that present changes in the climate observed is due to increase in human economic activities. In such a situation of flux regarding the climate when actual outcome is not known a wiser approach may be more cautious and hence there is need for a global collective action to fight these changes and only way which we know presently is reduction in emissions and that’s why Kyoto Protocol was adopted.
But then India’s argument can be that when none of the developed countries have tried to achieve the reductions target (in fact, in most of them the emissions have gone up) then why should it try to achieve the reduction target and let its people suffer because to achieve these reduction targets we have compromised with the economic growth of the country.
Developed countries are afraid that as countries like India and china grow the amount emissions from them will be enormous and hence potentially most dreadful for the environment and hence there is need for these countries to reduce the emissions most. These developing countries again argue that when the developed countries were growing they polluted the environment and now they want India and China to not do that. Bu this argument is weak since tomorrow when Africa starts growing at faster pace the same threat may be there from them as well and in this rat race we may actually lose life on the earth.
Then what to do?